Question

Assess the probability that the New York Mets will win the World Series (WS) next year. Call this probability p. Now assess the following probabilities: P(Win WS I Win Pennant) and P(Win Pennant). Use these to calculate q = P(Win WS) = P(Win WS I Win Pennant) P(Win Pennant)=P(Win WS and Win Pennant). To play in the World Series, the team must first win the pennant.

a.) Does p = q? Which of the two assessments are you more confident about? Would you adjust your assessments to make p = q? Why or why not? Hint: p+q=1

b.) If you do not like the Mets, do this problem for your favorite major league baseball team.

Answer 1