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Assess the probability that the New York Mets will win the World Series (WS) next year....

Assess the probability that the New York Mets will win the World Series (WS) next year. Call this probability p. Now assess the following probabilities: P(Win WS I Win Pennant) and P(Win Pennant). Use these to calculate q = P(Win WS) = P(Win WS I Win Pennant) P(Win Pennant)=P(Win WS and Win Pennant). To play in the World Series, the team must first win the pennant.

a.) Does p = q? Which of the two assessments are you more confident about? Would you adjust your assessments to make p = q? Why or why not? Hint: p+q=1

b.) If you do not like the Mets, do this problem for your favorite major league baseball team.

Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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