Question

Consider the following time series data:

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Value 23 13 21 13 19 21 17

b) |
Develop a three-month moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. |

If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. | |

MSE: | |

The forecast for month 8: | |

(c) |
Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month
8. |

If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. | |

MSE: Forecast for month 8: |

e) |
Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential
smoothing coefficient α that results in the smallest
MSE. |

If required, round your answer to two decimal places. | |

α = |

Answer #1

b)

month | value | forecast | |error| | error^2 |

1 | 23 | |||

2 | 13 | |||

3 | 21 | |||

4 | 13 | 19.00 | -6.00 | 36.00 |

5 | 19 | 15.67 | 3.33 | 11.11 |

6 | 21 | 17.67 | 3.33 | 11.11 |

7 | 17 | 17.67 | -0.67 | 0.44 |

19.00 | total | 58.66 | ||

average | 14.67 | |||

MSE= |
14.67 |
|||

Forecast= |
19.00 |

c)

for exponential smoothing: next period forecast =α*last period actual+(1-α)*last period forecast |

month | value | forecast | error | error^2 |

1 | 23 | |||

2 | 13 | 23.00 | -10.00 | 100.00 |

3 | 21 | 21.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |

4 | 13 | 21.00 | -8.00 | 64.00 |

5 | 19 | 19.40 | -0.40 | 0.16 |

6 | 21 | 19.32 | 1.68 | 2.82 |

7 | 17 | 19.66 | -2.66 | 7.05 |

total | 174.04 | |||

average | 29.01 | |||

MSE= |
29.01 |
|||

Forecast= |
19.13 |

e)

alpha= 0.32

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Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
23
13
21
13
19
21
17
(a)
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What type of pattern exists in the data?
- Select your answer -Positive trend patternHorizontal
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If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not
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Month
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2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
24
13
20
12
19
23
15
Develop a three-month moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8.
If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not
round intermediate calculation.
MSE:
The forecast for month 8:
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Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values
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If required, round your answers to two decimal places.
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If required, round your answers to two decimal places.
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Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
19
12
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11
18
13
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Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time
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19
2
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16
4
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2
3
4
5
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11
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2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
24
13
20
12
19
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Value
16
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2
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