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Problem 8 – Uncertain reasoning A test has been developed to identify a disease. If a...

Problem 8 – Uncertain reasoning

A test has been developed to identify a disease. If a person who has the disease is tested, then the test will return positive 96% of the time. If a person who does not contract this disease is tested, the test will return positive 2% of the time. Statistics also shows that 1 in 1000 persons has this disease.

  1. What is the prior probability that a person will be tested positive?

  1. A doctor has just put Mr. James Bond through the test, and the test returns positive. What are the chances that Mr. James Bond is actually has the disease?
Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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