Question

A message transmission system has two channels, C1 and C2. Each message consists of a succession of “zeros” and “ones”, with 60% of messages forwarded by channel C1. The probability of the system correctly transmitting each signal (0 or 1) is 0.95 for channel C1, and 0.99 for channel C2 (LOPES, 2015). If a message consisting of signal set 011 is issued:
A. How likely is it to be transmitted correctly?
B. knowing that it was received as 010, i.e. the third signal was transmitted incorrectly, what is the probability that it was transmitted by channel C1?

Answer 1