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A young engineer has invented holographic mobile phones and has approached a venture capital company to...

A young engineer has invented holographic mobile phones and has approached a venture capital company to invest in it. The venture capital company considers the product to be an all or nothing product: either everyone will want one because everyone else has one or no one will want one because there will be no one to use it with. The company believes that the probability of success is 0.14. They are considering using a consumer survey to gather more information. However, the company has experience that shows that the probability that the consumer survey will predict success for a product that will actually fail is 0.24, and the probability that the consumer survey will predict failure when the product will be a success is 0.07.

Define relevant events and draw a tree diagram with probabilities marked along edges. Find the probability that the product will be a success. If the product is a success, find the probability that the consumer survey will predict the success.

Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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