Question

Describe a situation where you see probabilities or might see probabilities. Then present this probability as a conditional probability. In response, other students can make assumptions about the conditional probability table that could accompany such a situation and pose a question for a specific probability.

Answer 1

Suppose there are three boxes where a prize is hidden in one of them. At this point, you have 1/3 probability of picking the prize if you randomly select one of the three boxes (i.e P(winning)=1/3).

Now, if you selected a box (but have yet open it) and are told that one of the remaining boxes is empty, you are asked whether you would like to change your choice of selection. You can easily verify using Bayes' Rule that P(winning|change selection)=2/3, so it is in fact a better decision for you to change your selection.