Question

John has collected the following information on the amount of tips he has collected from parking...

John has collected the following information on the amount of tips he has collected from parking cars the last seven nights.

Day Tips

1 18

2 22

3 17

4 18

5 28

6 20

7 12

a. Compute the 3-day moving averages for the time series. (5 points)

b. Compute the mean square error for the forecasts. (4 points)

c. Compute the mean absolute deviation for the forecasts. (4 points)

d. Forecast John's tips for day 8. (4 points)

Homework Answers

Answer #1

a) Three period moving average = forecast for fourth period y4 = (y3+y2+y1)/3

day Tips three period moving average
1 18 NA
2 22 NA
3 17 NA
4 18 19
5 28 19
6 20 21
7 12 22
day 8 20

b)

day Tips three period moving average error
1 18
2 22
3 17
4 18 19 -1
5 28 19 9
6 20 21 -1
7 12 22 -10
20

MSE = ((-1)2 + (-1)2+(9)2+(-10)2)/4 = 45.75

c) mean absolute deviation for the forecasts = (1+9+1+10)/4 = 5.25

d) Forecast for day 8 = (28 + 20 +12)/3 = 20

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