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An airport screens bags for forbidden items, and an alarm is supposed to be triggered when...

An airport screens bags for forbidden items, and an alarm is supposed to be triggered when a forbidden item is detected. Suppose that 1% of bags contain forbidden items. If a bag contains a forbidden item, there is a 98% chance that it triggers the alarm, and if a bag doesn't contain a forbidden item, there is a 6% chance that it triggers the alarm. A bag is chosen at random.

If it triggers the alarm, what is the probability the bag contains a forbidden item?

Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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