Question

The following time series shows the number of units of a particular product sold over the past six months.

Month	Units Sold
1	9
2	4
3	5
4	6
5	13
6	11

​a. Compute the three-month moving average forecast for month 4.

b. Compute the three-month moving average forecast for month 5.

c. Compute the three-month moving average forecast for month 6.

d. Compute the mean squared error (MSE) for the three-month moving average forecasts.

e. Use α = 0.3 to compute the exponential smoothing forecast for month 2.

f. Use α = 0.3 to compute the exponential smoothing forecast for month 3.

g. Use α = 0.3 to compute the exponential smoothing forecast for month 4.

h. Use α = 0.3 to compute the exponential smoothing forecast for month 5.

i. Use α = 0.3 to compute the exponential smoothing forecast for month 6.

j. Compute the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the exponential smoothing forecasts.

k. Use α = 0.3 to compute the exponential smoothing forecast for month 7.  

Answer 1

a,b,c,d

period	demand	forcast	forecast error=demand value-forecast value	absolute forecast error	squared forcast error
t	Dt	Ft	et=Dt-Ft	| et |	(et)²
1	9
2	4
3	5
4	6	6.000	0.00	0.00	0.00
5	13	5.000	8.00	8.00	64.00
6	11	8.000	3.00	3.00	9.00

MSE=   Σ(et)²/n =    24.33

e)

Month	Sales ($1000)	Forecast ŷt+1 = yt*α + ŷt*(1-α)
1	9	9
2	4	9.00
3	5	7.50
4	6	6.75
5	13	6.53
6	11	8.47
7		9.23

period	demand	forcast	forecast error=demand value-forecast value	absolute forecast error	squared forcast error
t	Dt	Ft	et=Dt-Ft	| et |	(et)²
1
2	4	9.000	-5.00	5.00	25.00
3	5	7.500	-2.50	2.50	6.25
4	6	6.750	-0.75	0.75	0.56
5	13	6.525	6.48	6.48	41.93
6	11	8.468	2.53	2.53	6.41

MSE=   Σ(et)²/n =    16.03

THANKS

revert back for doubt

please upvote