Question

Consider the following time series data.

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6

Value 18 14 16 10 18 14

Using the naive method

a. Mean absolute error

If required, round your answer to one decimal place.

b. Mean squared error

If required, round your answer to one decimal place.

C. Mean absolute percentage error

If required, round your answer to one decimal place.

D. What is the forecast for week 7?

If required, round your answer to one decimal place.

Answer 1

Time period	Actual Value(A)	Moving avg. Forecast(F)	Forecast error E=|A-F|	Squared Forecast Error	|A-F|A
1	18
2	14	18	4	16	0.2857
3	16	14	2	4	0.1250
4	10	16	6	36	0.6000
5	18	10	8	64	0.4444
6	14	18	4	16	0.2857
7		14
		Total	24	136	1.74
		Average	4.80	27.20	34.82%
			MAD	MSE	MAPE

a)

Mean absolute error =4.80

b)

Mean squared error =27.20

c)

Mean absolute percentage error =34.82%

d)

forecast for week 7 =14