Question

During a set of mid-term elections, Republican candidate Johnson battled Democratic candidate Smith for the U. S. senate. An early exit poll of voters showed 391 voted for Johnson, while 345 voted for Smith.

On the basis of this exit poll (and assuming the Republican and the Democrat were the only two candidates), could we conclude at a significance level of 0.025 that Johnson would win the election?

Answer 1

P-value = P(Z > 1.7) = 1-P(Z< 1.7) = 0.0446

That is, there is not sufficient evidence to conclude that Johnson would win the election.