Question

Problem 12-09 (Algorithmic)

A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows:

Activity		Activity Time (weeks)		Probability
A		7		0.30
		8		0.31
		9		0.23
		10		0.16
B		5		0.16
		7		0.57
		9		0.27
C		8		0.11
		10		0.20
		12		0.35
		14		0.22
		16		0.12
D		12		0.60
		14		0.40

1. Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project.
   

   Activity	Base case	Worst case	Best case
   A	weeks	weeks	weeks
   B	weeks	weeks	weeks
   C	weeks	weeks	weeks
   D	weeks	weeks	weeks
   Total	weeks	weeks	weeks

2. Use the random numbers 0.1, 0.7455, 0.4873 and 0.2453 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks.
   

   Activity	Random Number	Completion Time
   A	0.1	weeks
   B	0.7455	weeks
   C	0.4873	weeks
   D	0.2453	weeks
   Total		weeks

3. Discuss how simulation could be used to estimate the probability that the project can be completed in weeks or less.
   
   Simulation provides a distribution of project completion times. The   of times weeks and under can be used to estimate the probability that the project will be completed within weeks.

Answer 1