Question

A) Forecast the demand for the next 4 periods using Exponential Constant Smoothing. Demand for 6...

A) Forecast the demand for the next 4 periods using Exponential Constant Smoothing.

Demand for 6 periods is as follows: Period 1 2 3 4 5 6

                                                                  Demand 20 22 21 18 19 28

B) Determine the bias

Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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Homework Answers

Answer #1

Single Exponential Smoothing for demand1

Data demand1
Length 6

Smoothing Constant

? 1.77048

B] Time demand1 Smooth Predict Error
1 20 20.3159 19.5900 0.41002
2 22 23.2976 20.3159 1.68409
3 21 19.2298 23.2976 -2.29756
4 18 17.0525 19.2298 -1.22977
5 19 20.5005 17.0525 1.94751
6 28 33.7782 20.5005 7.49947

Bias = The arithematic mean of errors

Bias = sum(errors)/ n

Bias = 8.01376 /6

Bias = 1.3356

A] Forecasts

Period Forecast Lower Upper
7 33.7782 27.6254 39.9310
8 33.7782 27.6254 39.9310
9 33.7782 27.6254 39.9310
10 33.7782 27.6254 39.9310

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