Year 
Quarter 
Sales 
1 
Q1 
7 
Q2 
2 

Q3 
4 

Q4 
10 

2 
Q1 
6 
Q2 
3 

Q3 
8 

Q4 
14 

3 
Q1 
10 
Q2 
3 

Q3 
5 

Q4 
16 

4 
Q1 
12 
Q2 
4 

Q3 
7 

Q4 
22 
1.Develop a model for trend and seasonality. Please clearly define your variables. How many independent variables do you have in your regression?
2.What is the intercept in your estimated regression model? Rounded to two decimal places.
3.Use the model to forecast for sales of last quarter in the 5th year. Rounded to two decimal places.
4.Calculate the MAE for this time series forecast.
1)
Year  Quarter  Sales  Q1  Q2  Q3  t 
1  1  7  1  0  0  1 
2  2  0  1  0  2  
3  4  0  0  1  3  
4  10  0  0  0  4  
2  1  6  1  0  0  5 
2  3  0  1  0  6  
3  8  0  0  1  7  
4  14  0  0  0  8  
3  1  10  1  0  0  9 
2  3  0  1  0  10  
3  5  0  0  1  11  
4  16  0  0  0  12  
4  1  12  1  0  0  13 
2  4  0  1  0  14  
3  7  0  0  1  15  
4  22  0  0  0  16 
response variable is sales
independnet variables are, Q1,Q2,Q3,t = 4
2)
coefficients  std error  
intercept  11.1875  1.602799 
Q1  5.46  1.553052 
Q2  11.64  1.529905 
Q3  9.069  1.515848 
t=  0.431  0.119466 
intercept = 11.19
3) Y^= 11.1875+5.45625Q1+11.6375Q2+9.06875Q3+0.43125*t
Y^= 11.1875+5.45625*0+11.6375*0+9.06875*0+0.43125*20 = 19.81
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