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Be able to solve a Bayes’ rule problem.1.Suppose that 1% of the population has conditionZ, and...

Be able to solve a Bayes’ rule problem.1.Suppose that 1% of the population has conditionZ, and we have a screening test for condition Z that is 98% accurate. Given that a person tests positive, what is the probability that the person actually has condition Z?

Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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Answer #1

We are provided the following information:

P(Condition Z) = 0.01

P(No Condition Z) = 0.99

P(Tests positive/Condition Z) = 0.98

P(Tests positive/No Condtion Z) = 0.02

We need to find:

P(Condition Z/tests positive)

= P(tests positive and have condition Z) / P(tests positive)

= P(tests positive/condition Z) * P(Condition Z) / P(tests positive)

Hence the required probability is 33.108%

Let me know in the comments if anything is not clear. I will reply ASAP! Please do upvote if satisfied!

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