Question

Consider the following time series data.

Week	1	2	3	4	5	6
Value	20	12	15	10	19	14

Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

1. Mean absolute error. Round your answer to one decimal place.
   
   
   
2. Mean squared error. Round your answer to one decimal place.
   
   
   
3. Mean absolute percentage error. Round your answer to two decimal places.
   
   
   
4. What is the forecast for week 7? Round your answer to the nearest whole number.
   

Answer 1

Time period	Actual Value(A)	Moving avg. Forecast(F)	Forecast error E=|A-F|	Squared Forecast Error
1	20
2	12	20	8	64
3	15	12	3	9
4	10	15	5	25
5	19	10	9	81
6	14	19	5	25
7		14
		Total	30	204
		Average	6.00	40.80
			MAD	MSE
a) mean absolute error=			6.00
b) mean squared error =			40.80
c) mean absolute % error=			43.95%
d) forecast for week 7 =			14