Question

The first apparently reliable datings of particular rock strata were obtained from the K/Ar method (comparing the proportions of Potassium 40 and Argon 40 in the rocks) in the 1960’s, and these resulted in an estimate of 370 ± 20 million years. In the late 1970’s a newer method gave an age of 421 ± 8 million years. Suppose that the K/Ar method results in a belief for the age which is gaussian with mean 370 and standard deviation 20 million years. Suppose that the model for the newer method is that the observed age will be gaussian with mean the true age and standard deviation 8 million years. How are the initial beliefs revised in the light of the results of the new method?

Answer 1