Question

1. Explain the Frequentist interpretation of the confidence level. (Be careful NOT to explain the Bayesian interpretation)

1. Consider presidential polls and the following headline: Polls show Hillary ahead at 51% (+/-3%), Trump lagging behind at 49% (+/-3%)
   • What is the confidence interval for each candidate?
   • Which candidate is really ahead?
   • Why is it important for the general public to understand confidence intervals?

Answer 1

1. The confidence interval for Hilary is 51%+3% or 51%-3%=54% or 48% and confidence interval Trump is 49%+3% or 49%-3%=52% or 46%

2. From the confidence interval above it shows that Hilary is the candidate ahead with higher confidence interval.

3 Confidence interval is very key and is important for the general public because it is very good for prediction and it enable the public to understand that there is a confidence limit that only guarantee a standard and anything or observation that fall out of this confidence limit is not acceptable.