Question

Problem 12-09 (Algorithmic) A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows: Activity Activity Time (weeks) Probability A 7 0.30 8 0.31 9 0.23 10 0.16 B 5 0.16 7 0.57 9 0.27 C 8 0.11 10 0.20 12 0.35 14 0.22 16 0.12 D 12 0.60 14 0.40 Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project. Activity Base case Worst case Best case A weeks weeks weeks B weeks weeks weeks C weeks weeks weeks D weeks weeks weeks Total weeks weeks weeks Use the random numbers 0.1, 0.7455, 0.4873 and 0.2453 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks. Activity Random Number Completion Time A 0.1 weeks B 0.7455 weeks C 0.4873 weeks D 0.2453 weeks Total weeks Discuss how simulation could be used to estimate the probability that the project can be completed in weeks or less. Simulation provides a distribution of project completion times. The of times weeks and under can be used to estimate the probability that the project will be completed within weeks. C is asking for mean or percentage

Answer 1