Question

Given the following data about the number of wrecks that have occurred at the intersection of green and main street during the past 6 months,

Jan (10)

Feb (15)

March (12)

April (20)

May (18)

June (25)

and a = 30, the simple exponential smoothing forecast method was employed.

Calculate the MAP for that questions process:

(enter the value as a % rounded to the nearest whole number. Do not use a decimal, words, symbols or other marks.

Answer 1

for exponential smoothing: next period forecast =α*last period actual+(1-α)*last period forecast

Time period	Actual Value(A)	Forecast(F)	Forecast error E=A-F	Squared Forecast Error	MAPE
1	10
2	15	10.00	5.00	25.00	0.3333
3	12	11.50	0.50	0.25	0.0417
4	20	11.65	8.35	69.72	0.4175
5	18	14.16	3.85	14.78	0.2136
6	25	15.31	9.69	93.93	0.3877
		Total	27.39	203.68	1.39
		Average	5.48	40.74	27.88%
			MAD	MSE	MAPE

from above: MAP for that questions process =28 %