Question

The second article (the one published in 2006) estimates the excess number of deaths for the same post-war period to be 112,000 deaths with a confidence interval of 69,000-155,000 (see page 1426, second column). What does this confidence interval mean? How would you interpret it?

Answer 1

The estimated excess number of deaths for the same post-war period was 112,000

But since this is also an estimation this can not be exactly true.

In such scenario we define confidence interval for the mean defining a range under which we are confident that the actual value will lie.

Here, it is 69,000-155,000

Although the average number of deaths are 112,000 but we can say with the confidence that the excess number of deaths for the same post-war period will lie in the interval 69,000-155,000