Question

1. The Pew Research Center asked the same group of 2016 Trump voters to rate Trump on a feeling thermometer (a feeling thermometer question simply asks people how they feel about a topic, with 0 being cold and 100 being hot) in April 2016 and March 2018. The results were tallied and resulted in four categories of Trump voters:

Feeling Thermometer 2016 and 2018	Frequency
Skeptics: Cold in 2016 and 2018 Disillusioned: Warm in 2016 and Warm in 2018 Converts: Cold in 2016 and Warm in 2018 Enthusiasts: Warm in 2016 and 2018	153 76 293 751
Total	1273

1. What percent of Trump voters fell into each category?

2. Assume we randomly picked one person from this group of confirmed voters.
   1. What’s the probability we would pick a Skeptic?
   2. What’s the probability we would pick a Disillusioned Trump voter?

2. 3. What’s the probability we would pick a Converted Trump voter?
   4. What’s the probability we would pick an Enthusiast?
   5. What’s the probability we would pick someone who felt warmly toward him in 2018?
3. In 2016, a left-leaning blogger predicted that it would not take long for Trump voters to turn away from him.   Do the data support the blogger’s prediction? Why or why not?

Answer 1

a)

percentage of the voter in each category

skeptics = 153 / 1273 = 12.01 %

Disillusioned = 76 / 1273 = 5.97 %

Converts = 293 / 1273 = 23.01 %

Enthusiats = 751 / 1273 = 58.99 %

b)

Probability of choosing a person randomly

i) P(skeptics ) = 153 / 1273 = 0.1201

ii) P(Disillusioned) = 76 / 1273 = 0.0597

iii) P(Converts) = 293 / 1273 = 0.2301

iv) P(Enthusiats) = 751 / 1273 = 0.5899

v) P( who feel warmly in 2018 ) = (76+293+751 ) / 1273 = 0.8798

c) No, the blogger prediction is wrong a lot of supporters is still supporting trump as nearly 60 % of the voter are falling into enthusiasts category

c)