Question

Ch 04 HW 3 Forecasting problem Method: Moving Average with n = 5 The data for this problem is shown in the table below. Note: changes from the original problem data are highlighted in yellow. Time (t) Actual A(t) 1 950 2 930 3 940 4 955 5 972 6 926 7 834 8 840 9 828 10 813 11 don't have yet What is the value for MAPE using this method?  

Answer 1

Solution :

Time (t)	Actual A(t)	Moving Average for n = 5	| Actual - Forecast |	| Actual - Forecast | * 100 / Actual
1	950
2	930
3	940	(950 + 930 + 940 + 955 + 972)/5 = 949.4	9.4	1%
4	955	(930 + 940 + 955 + 972 + 926)/5 = 944.6	10.4	1.09%
5	972	(940 + 955 + 972 + 926 + 834)/5 = 925.4	46.6	4.79%
6	926	(955 + 972 + 926 + 834+ 840)/5 = 905.4	20.6	2.22%
7	834	(972 + 926 + 834+ 840 + 828)/5 = 880	46	5.52%
8	840	(926 + 834+ 840 + 828 + 813)/5 = 848.2	8.2	0.98%
9	828
10	813

Sum of | Actual - Forecast | * 100 / Actual = 1 + 1.09 + 4.79 + 2.22 + 5.52 + 0.98 = 15.6%

MAPE = 15.6 / 6

MAPE = 2.6%

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