Question

Imagine that you need to have at least 3 sucessful projects in the next fiscal year....

Imagine that you need to have at least 3 sucessful projects in the next fiscal year. Projects have a success chance of 0.8. How many projects do you need to start to have a 90% chance of 3 or more successes?

Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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Answer #1

Let us assume that you have chosen n projects. Then the number of successful projects will follow Binomial distribution with parameters n and 0.8 Let the number of successful project is X. We can guess the normal approximation of binomial distribution to guess n. Then by the normal approximation,

Hence, you should choose 5 projects.

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