Question

3. An earth retaining wall with a design life of 50 years is
planned for a site where high-intensity earthquakes may occur with
a return period of 100 years. A geotechnical engineer has decided
that the wall is to be designed to have a 0.99 probability that it
will not suffer damage within its design life. Assuming damage
between earthquakes are statistically independent, answer the
following questions.

(a) What is the probability the wall will be damaged under a single
earthquake if the occurrence of high-intensity earthquakes at the
site can be modeled as a Bernoulli sequence?

(b) Using the answer to part (a), what is the probability the wall
will be damaged in the next 20 years if the occurrences of
high-intensity earthquakes can be modeled as a Poisson process?

Answer #1

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