Question

Please note the data for a Burrito shop which is counting the number of customers daily.

t	Observed
1	108
2	130
3	96
4	144
5	136
6	113
7	120
8	119
9	120
10	106

Please answer the two questions below using R code.

a. Compute a forecast for the next day by using a 3-day moving average. What is the forecast? What is the MAD for the last five observations?

b. Compute a forecast for the number of customers for the next day using exponential smoothing with α = 0.3. What is the forecast? What is the MAD for the last five observations?

Answer 1

A_{t}	F_{t}	| A_{t} - F_{t} | =MAD
113	125.33	12.33
120	131	11
119	123	4
120	117.33	2.67
106	119.67	13.67

A_{t}	F_{t}	| A_{t} - F_{t} | =MAD
113	124.4598	11.46
120	121.0218	1.02
119	120.715	1.72
120	120.2	0.2
106	120.14	14.14