Question

Consider the following time series data.

Week |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |

Value |
19 | 14 | 16 | 11 | 18 | 15 |

Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. Round the intermediate calculations to two decimal places.

- Mean absolute error (to 1 decimal).

- Mean squared error (to 1 decimal).

- Mean absolute percentage error (to 2 decimals).

% - What is the forecast for week 7 (to the nearest whole
number)?

Answer #1

Time period | Actual Value(A) | Moving avg. Forecast(F) | Forecast error E=|A-F| | Squared Forecast Error | |A-F|A |

1 | 19 | ||||

2 | 14 | 19 | 5 | 25 | 0.3571 |

3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 0.1250 |

4 | 11 | 16 | 5 | 25 | 0.4545 |

5 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 49 | 0.3889 |

6 | 15 | 18 | 3 | 9 | 0.2000 |

7 | 15 | ||||

Total | 22 | 112 | 1.53 | ||

Average | 4.40 | 22.40 | 30.51% | ||

MAD | MSE | MAPE |

a)

Mean absolute error =4.40

b)

Mean squared error =22.40

c)

Mean absolute percentage error =30.5%

d)

forecast for week 7 =15

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Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
12
17
11
17
14
Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for
the next week, compute the following measures of forecast
accuracy.
(a)
mean absolute error
MAE =
(b)
mean squared error
MSE =
(c)
mean absolute percentage error (Round your answer to two decimal
places.)
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Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
14
15
11
19
14
Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for
the next week, compute the following measures of forecast
accuracy?
(a)
Mean absolute error
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
(b)
Mean squared error
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
(c)
Mean absolute percentage error
If required, round your intermediate calculations and final...

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round your answer to one decimal place. (c) Mean absolute
percentage error If required, round your intermediate calculations
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Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
20
12
15
10
19
14
Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for
the next week, compute the following measures of forecast
accuracy.
Mean absolute error. Round your answer to one decimal
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Mean squared error. Round your answer to one decimal
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Mean absolute percentage error. Round your answer to two
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(b) Mean squared error If required, round your answer to one
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3
4
5
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Mean absolute error
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
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Mean squared error
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
(c)
Mean absolute percentage error
If required, round your intermediate calculations and final...

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