Data from
1414
cities were combined for a 20-year period, and the total
280280
city-years included a total of
8080
homicides. After finding the mean number of homicides per city-year, find the probability that a randomly selected city-year has the following numbers of homicides, then compare the actual results to those expected by using the Poisson probabilities:
Homicides each city-year |
a. 0 |
b. 1 |
c. 2 |
d. 3 |
e. 4 |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Actual results |
211 |
59 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
a. (Round to four decimal places as needed.)
P(0)equals=
P(1)equals=
P(2)equals=
P(3)equals=
P(4)equals=
Solution :
x | f(x) | xf(x) |
0 | 211 | 0 |
1 | 59 | 59 |
2 | 9 | 18 |
3 | 1 | 3 |
4 | 0 | 0 |
total | 280 | 80 |
mean =xf/ f =80/280 = 0.28
actual result expected result
P(0)=e-0.28*0.280/0! =0.7557 , 0.7557*280 = 211.296
P(1)=e-0.28*0.281/1! =0.2116 , 0.2116*280 = 59.248
P(2)=e-0.28*0.282/2! =0.0296 , 0.0296*280 = 8.288
P(3)=e-0.28*0.283/3! =0.0027 , 0.0027*280 = 0.756
P(4)=e-0.28*0.284/4! =0.0001 , 0.0001*280 = 0.028
There for the results from poission distribution closly match to actual results.
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