Question

Suppose that you are asked to evaluate the abilities of an individual who claims to have perfect ESP (extrasensory perception). You decide to conduct an experiment to test this ability. You deal one card face down from a regular deck of 52 cards. The subject is then asked to say what the card is. Consider the following hypotheses: The subject does not have ESP. The subject does have ESP.

(a) What would a Type I error be in this context? (Give your answer in a nonstatistical manner.)

(b) What would a Type II error be in this context? (Give your answer in a nonstatistical manner.)

(c) Suppose that you decide to conclude that the individual has ESP if and only if he or she correctly identifies the card. What is the level of significance of this particular decision rule?

(d) What is the chance of a Type II error for the decision rule given in part (c)?

(e) When the experiment is carried out, the individual fails to identify correctly the hidden card. What is the p-value?

(f) When the experiment is carried out, the individual correctly identifies the hidden card. The p-value is Is this the chance that the null hypothesis is correct? Explain.

Answer 1

No, this is not the chance that the null hypothesis is correct but instead it is the chance of we concluding that the card identification is correct given that the  Null is true.