Question

Three students, namely Andi, Budi, and Cahyo, are nominated to be the head of a student association. Based on some surveys, the chance of those to be selected are 0.3, 0.4, 0.3, respectively. But, if Andi is elected, then the probability of an increase in new members is 0.8. Budi could increase the number of new members with probability 0.1, and Cahyo 0.4. In the middle of the campaign week, Dean left the university for a student exchange program, without knowing any update in the association afterward. 1 year later, Dean returns and find that new members have been increased. What is the probability that Andi was elected?

Answer 1