Question

Consider the following probabilities about the maneuverings between the Kurds and the US to attack ISIS...

Consider the following probabilities about the maneuverings between the Kurds and

the US to attack ISIS in Raqqa in Syria.

Pr(US conducts airstrikes against ISIS) = 0.6

Pr(Kurdish forces attack | US conducts airstrikes) = 0.4

Pr(Kurdish forces attack and US does not conduct airstrikes) = 0

(a) What is the probability that no one attacks ISIS?

(b) What type of probability is this?

Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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Answer #1

b) This type of probability can be classified as a subjective probability because there is a subjectiveness in the statement. It is not based on a random experiment or past(historical) data. According to the question, there is a 60% chance that US conduct airstrike against ISIS, extra. We have found that there is a 40% chance that no one attack on ISIS.

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