Observed weekly sales of ball peen hammers at the town hardware store over an eight-week period have been 14, 9, 30, 22, 34, 12, 19, 23.
a. Suppose that three-week moving averages are used to forecast sales. Determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for weeks 4 through 8.
b. Suppose that exponential smoothing is used with a smoothing constant of alpha = .15. Find the exponential smoothing forecasts for weeks 4 through 8. [To get the method started, use the same forecast for week 4 as you used in part (a).]
c. Based on the MAD, which method did better?
d. What is the exponential smoothing forecast made at the end of week 6 for the sales in week 12?
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