Question

URGENT Is the answer for question 4 24.88 or 24.53???

Consider the following annual series on the number of people assisted by a county’s human resources department.

Year	People (in 100s)
1	22
2	24
3	28
4	24
5	22
6	24
7	20
8	26
9	24
10	28
11	26

1) What is the 3-year moving average for period 4?

Select one:

a. 26.00

b. 23.33

c. 24.67

d. 29.4

e. 22.00

2) What is the 3-year moving average forecast for period 12?

Select one:

a. 24.67

b. 23.33

c. 29.4

d. 26.00

e. 22.00

3) What is the Mean Square Error (MSE) for the 3-year moving average?

Select one:

a. 18.61

b. 124.31

c. 8.41

d. 7.67

e. 29.40

4) Using a smoothing constant of 0.4, what is the exponential smoothing value to be used as forecasts for period 4?

Select one:

a. 25.70

b. 22.80

c. 24.88

d. 24.53

e. 22.00

5) Using a smoothing constant of 0.4, what is the exponential smoothing value to be used as forecasts for period 12?

Select one:

a. 22.80

b. 22.88

c. 24.53

d. 25.50

e. 25.70

6) Using a smoothing constant of 0.4, what is the Mean Square Error (MSE) for exponential smoothing?

Select one:

a. 29.40

b. 8.41

c. 18.61

d. 124.31

e. 7.67

7) When comparing the accuracy of both forecasting techniques (3-year moving average and exponential smoothing with a 0.4 smoothing constant) we can conclude that

Select one:

a. no conclusion can be drawn—the two models are not comparable.

b. exponential smoothing is more accurate since its MSE is larger than that of the 3-year moving average.

c. the 3-year moving average is more accurate since its MSE is less than that of exponential smoothing.

d. the 3-year moving average is more accurate since its MSE is larger than that of exponential smoothing.

e. exponential smoothing is more accurate since its MSE is less than that of the 3-year moving average.

Answer 1

4)

for exponential smoothing: next period forecast =α*last period actual+(1-α)*last period forecast

month	value	forecast		error^2
1	22
2	24	22.00		4.00
3	28	22.80		27.04
4	24	24.88		0.77
5	22	24.53		6.39
6	24	23.52		0.23
7	20	23.71		13.76
8	26	22.23		14.24
9	24	23.74		0.07
10	28	23.84		17.29
11	26	25.50		0.25
			total	84.06
			average	8.41

exponential smoothing value to be used as forecasts for period 4 =24.88