Question

A media personality argues that global temperatures are not rising, because every year an increase is reported such as 0.08 degrees C. The difference from the previous year is less than the margin of error of about 0.15 degrees C, so that difference should be ignored. What is a strong counterargument?

1. Even 0.08 degrees is a lot and thus should be considered.

2. The margin of error is just extra information and thus can be ignored.

3. The difference with any previous decade is much greater than the margin of error.

4. 0.15 - 0.08 is 0.07, which is still an increase and thus should be considered.

Answer 1

Margin of error=Critical value *Standard deviation of population=Critical value *Standard error of sample.

The margin of error measures accuracy.

The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. The larger the margin of error, the less confidence one should have that the poll's reported results are close to the "true" figures; that is, the figures for the whole population.

Hence, even though every year the temperature rises by 0.08degrees Centigrade, the difference between margin of error and the increase is still much greater.

That is,

0.15-0.08=0.07

this is still an increase and it should be considered.

Option 4 is correct.