Question

Consider the following time series. Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 1 71 68 62...

Consider the following time series.

Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
1 71 68 62
2 49 41 51
3 57 59 52
4 78 81 72

(a) Use the following dummy variables to develop an estimated regression equation to account for seasonal effects in the data:

x1 = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; x2 = 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; x3 = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise.

= _____?______

(b) Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year.

quarter 1 forecast =____?_____

quarter 2 forecast =____?_____

quarter 3 forecast =____?_____

quarter 4 forecast =____?_____

Homework Answers

Answer #2
Quarter Period Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Series
1 1 1 0 0 71
2 2 0 1 0 49
3 3 0 0 1 57
4 4 0 0 0 78
1 5 1 0 0 68
2 6 0 1 0 41
3 7 0 0 1 59
4 8 0 0 0 81
1 9 1 0 0 62
2 10 0 1 0 51
3 11 0 0 1 52
4 12 0 0 0 72

applying multiple regression on above

a)

y^ =77-10x1-30x2-21x3

b)

forecast for 1st qtr of next year = 67
forecast for 2nd qtr of next year = 47
forecast for 3rd qtr of next year = 56
forecast for 4th qtr of next year = 77
answered by: anonymous
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