Question

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 24 15 21 13 19 21 16...

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Value 24 15 21 13 19 21 16

a) Develop a three-month moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE:_______ The forecast for month 8________

b) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE_____ The forecast for month 8 _____

c) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in the smallest MSE. If required, round your answer to two decimal places. α =______  

Homework Answers

Answer #1

a)

month value forecast |error| error^2
1 24
2 15
3 21
4 13 20.00 -7.00 49.00
5 19 16.33 2.67 7.11
6 21 17.67 3.33 11.11
7 16 17.67 -1.67 2.78
total 70.00
average 17.50
MSE= 17.50
Forecast= 18.67

b)

month value forecast error error^2
1 24
2 15 24.00 -9.00 81.00
3 21 22.20 -1.20 1.44
4 13 21.96 -8.96 80.28
5 19 20.17 -1.17 1.36
6 21 19.93 1.07 1.14
7 16 20.15 -4.15 17.20
total 182.42
average 30.40
MSE= 30.40
Forecast= 19.32

c()

from   trial and error : α =0.41

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