The registrar of a law school has compiled the following statistics on the progress of the school's students working toward the LLB degree: Of the first-year students in a particular year, 79% successfully complete their course of studies and move on to the second year, whereas 21% drop out of the program; of the second-year students in a particular year, 92% go on to the third year, whereas 8% drop out of the program; of the third-year students in a particular year, 98% go on to graduate at the end of the year, whereas 2% drop out of the program.
(a) Construct the transition matrix associated with the Markov process. (Label your matrix using this order: Drop out, Graduate, First-Year, Second-Year, Third-Year)
|
(b) Find the steady-state matrix. (Round your answers to four
decimal places.)
|
(c) Determine the probability that a beginning law student enrolled
in the program will go on to graduate. (Round your answer to four
decimal places.)
Year1 0.79 |
Year2 0.92 |
Year3 0.98 |
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State Probability | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
P(success) | 1 | 0.79 | 0.79*0.92=0.7268 | 0.7268*0.98=0.71226 |
0 | 0.21 | 1-0.7268=0.2732 | 1-0.71226=0.28774 | |
matrix | ||||
( 1 0)(0.79 0.21) | P1 | |||
P1*(0.92 0.08) | P2 | |||
P2*(0.98 0.02) | P3 |
c)
Probability=0.71226
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