Question

n electrical contractor's records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests: Week: 1 2 3 4 5 Requests: 17 19 15 18 19 Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods: a. Naive. Number of requests b. A four-period moving average. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Number of requests c. Exponential smoothing with α = .30. Use 17 for week 2 forecast. (Round your intermediate forecast values and final answer to 2 decimal places.) Number of Requests F3 F4 F5 F6

Answer 1

naive forecasting: It is an estimating technique in which the last period's actual value are used as this period's forecast.

So predicted number of requests for week 6 using naive method = 19

Next we need to use four period moving average

Average of last four value = ( 19 + 15 + 18 + 19 ) / 4 = 17.75 This is the answer

Next we need to use exponential smoothing

Smoothing parameter = 0.30

F_t = F_t-1 + (A_t-1 - F_t-1 )

Where F_t = forecast value of period t

A_t = Actual value of period t

= smoothing parameter _{= 17.17} .

So for period 2, we have

F₂ = 17

F₃ = 17 + 0.3*(19 - 17 ) = 17.6

F₄ = 17.6 + 0.3 (15 - 17.6) = 16.82

F₅ = 16.82 + 0.3*( 18 - 16.82) = 17.174 = 17.17 (After rounding up to two decimal places).

F₆ = 17.17 + 0.3*(19 - 17.17) = 17.72 ( This is the final answer).