Question

Ch 04 HW 3 Forecasting problem Method: Exponential Smoothing optimized with Solver The data for this problem is shown in the table below. Note: changes from the original problem data are highlighted in yellow. Time (t) Actual A(t) 1 950 2 930 3 940 4 955 5 972 6 926 7 834 8 840 9 828 10 813 11 don't have yet What is the Forecast for Time Period 11 using this method?

Answer 1

The Forecast for Time Period 11 using this method is 937.

Alpha	1
Beta	0
Data			Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period	Demand		Smoothed Forecast, Ft	Smoothed Trend, Tt	Forecast Including Trend, FITt	Error	Absolute	Squared	Abs Pct Err
Period 1	950		960		960	-10	10	100	01.05%
Period 2	930		950	0	950	-20	20	400	02.15%
Period 3	915		930			-15	15	225	01.64%
Period 4	920		915			5	5	25	00.54%
Period 5	901		920			-19	19	361	02.11%
Period 6	898		901			-3	3	9	00.33%
Period 7	884		898			-14	14	196	01.58%
Period 8	913		884			29	29	841	03.18%
Period 9	924		913			11	11	121	01.19%
Period 10	937		924			13	13	169	0.013874
			Total			-23	139	2447	15.17%
			Average			-2.3	13.9	244.7	01.52%
						Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE
							SE	17.48928