Question

Ch 04 HW 3 Forecasting problem Method: Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment optimized with Solver The data for this problem is shown in the table below. Note: changes from the original problem data are highlighted in yellow. Time (t) Actual A(t) 1 950 2 930 3 915 4 920 5 901 6 898 7 884 8 913 9 924 10 937 11 don't have yet What is the value for MSE using this method?

Answer #1

MSE = 244.7

Alpha | 1 | ||||||||

Beta | 0 | ||||||||

Data | Forecasts and Error Analysis | ||||||||

Period | Demand | Smoothed Forecast, Ft | Smoothed Trend, Tt | Forecast Including Trend, FITt | Error | Absolute | Squared | Abs Pct Err | |

Period 1 | 950 | 960 | 960 | -10 | 10 | 100 | 01.05% | ||

Period 2 | 930 | 950 | 0 | 950 | -20 | 20 | 400 | 02.15% | |

Period 3 | 915 | 930 | -15 | 15 | 225 | 01.64% | |||

Period 4 | 920 | 915 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 00.54% | |||

Period 5 | 901 | 920 | -19 | 19 | 361 | 02.11% | |||

Period 6 | 898 | 901 | -3 | 3 | 9 | 00.33% | |||

Period 7 | 884 | 898 | -14 | 14 | 196 | 01.58% | |||

Period 8 | 913 | 884 | 29 | 29 | 841 | 03.18% | |||

Period 9 | 924 | 913 | 11 | 11 | 121 | 01.19% | |||

Period 10 | 937 | 924 | 13 | 13 | 169 | 0.013874 | |||

Total | -23 | 139 | 2447 | 15.17% | |||||

Average | -2.3 | 13.9 | 244.7 | 01.52% | |||||

Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | ||||||

SE | 17.48928 |

Ch 04 HW 3 Forecasting problem Method: Exponential Smoothing
with Trend Adjustment optimized with Solver The data for this
problem is shown in the table below. Note: changes from the
original problem data are highlighted in yellow. Time (t) Actual
A(t) 1 950 2 930 3 915 4 920 5 901 6 898 7 884 8 913 9 924 10 937
11 don't have yet What is the value for MAPE using this
method?

Ch 04 HW 3 Forecasting problem Method: Exponential Smoothing
optimized with Solver The data for this problem is shown in the
table below. Note: changes from the original problem data are
highlighted in yellow. Time (t) Actual A(t) 1 950 2 930 3 915 4 920
5 901 6 898 7 884 8 913 9 924 10 937 11 don't have yet What is the
value for MAD using this method?

h 04 HW 3 Forecasting problem Method: Exponential Smoothing
optimized with Solver The data for this problem is shown in the
table below. Note: changes from the original problem data are
highlighted in yellow. Time (t) Actual A(t) 1 950 2 930 3 915 4 920
5 901 6 898 7 884 8 913 9 924 10 937 11 don't have yet What is the
value for MSE using this method?

Ch 04 HW 3 Forecasting problem Method: Weighted Moving Average
with n = 3 and weights 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6 The data for this problem
is shown in the table below. Note: changes from the original
problem data are highlighted in yellow. Time (t) Actual A(t) 1 950
2 930 3 915 4 920 5 901 6 898 7 884 8 913 9 924 10 937 11 don't
have yet What is the value for MSE using this method?

Ch 04 HW 3 Forecasting problem Method: Weighted Moving Average
with n = 3 and weights 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6 The data for this problem
is shown in the table below. Note: changes from the original
problem data are highlighted in yellow. Time (t) Actual A(t) 1 950
2 930 3 915 4 920 5 901 6 898 7 884 8 913 9 924 10 937 11 don't
have yet What is the value for MAPE using this method?

Ch 04 HW 3 Forecasting problem Method: Exponential Smoothing
optimized with Solver The data for this problem is shown in the
table below. Note: changes from the original problem data are
highlighted in yellow. Time (t) Actual A(t) 1 950 2 930 3 940 4 955
5 972 6 926 7 834 8 840 9 828 10 813 11 don't have yet What is the
Forecast for Time Period 11 using this method?

Ch 04 HW 3 Forecasting problem Method: Moving Average with n = 5
The data for this problem is shown in the table below. Note:
changes from the original problem data are highlighted in yellow.
Time (t) Actual A(t) 1 950 2 930 3 940 4 955 5 972 6 926 7 834 8
840 9 828 10 813 11 don't have yet What is the value for MAPE using
this method?

Ch 04 HW 3 Forecasting problem Method: Weighted Moving Average
with n = 3 and weights 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5 The data for this problem
is shown in the table below. Note: changes from the original
problem data are highlighted in yellow. Time (t) Actual A(t) 1 950
2 930 3 940 4 955 5 972 6 926 7 834 8 840 9 828 10 813 11 don't
have yet What is the value for MAD using this method?

Table 2. The
mean response times per block for each participant that was
tested.
2f
2g
2i
2j
2e
/3
Blocks
average of
average of
average of
/6
/6
/6
/6
Participants
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
8 & 10
11 & 13
14 & 16
Difference score
t-value
p (1-tailed)
p (2-tailed)
1
749
703
776
502
745
875
811
688
833
745
557
1136
658
529
794...

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