Question

Consider the following time series data.

Week | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Value | 18 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 16 | 14 |

c)Use *α* = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
forecasts for the time series.

Week | Time Series Value |
Forecast |
---|---|---|

1 | 18 | |

2 | 13 | 18 |

3 | 15 | |

4 | 12 | |

5 | 16 | |

6 | 14 |

Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

MSE =____

What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

____

(e)Use a smoothing constant of *α* = 0.4 to compute the
exponential smoothing forecasts.

Week | Time Series Value |
Forecast |
---|---|---|

1 | 18 | |

2 | 13 | 18 |

3 | 15 | |

4 | 12 | |

5 | 16 | |

6 | 14 |

Answer #1

c)

Time period | Actual Value(A) | Forecast(F) | Forecast error E=A-F | Squared Forecast Error |

1 | 18 | |||

2 | 13 |
18.00 |
5.00 | 25.00 |

3 | 15 |
17.00 |
2.00 | 4.00 |

4 | 12 |
16.60 |
4.60 | 21.16 |

5 | 16 |
15.68 |
0.32 | 0.10 |

6 | 14 |
15.74 |
1.74 | 3.04 |

Total | 13.66 | 53.30 | ||

Average | 2.73 | 10.66 | ||

MAD | MSE | |||

MSE = |
10.66 |
|||

forecast for week 7 = |
15.39 |

e)

Time period | Actual Value(A) |
Forecast(F) |

1 | 18 | |

2 | 13 |
18.00 |

3 | 15 |
16.00 |

4 | 12 |
15.60 |

5 | 16 |
14.16 |

6 | 14 |
14.90 |

MSE = |
8.63 |

Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
19
12
16
11
18
13
(b)
Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time
series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
19
2
12
3
16
4
11
5
18
6
13
Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
MSE =
What is the forecast for week 7?
(c)
Use α = 0.2 to compute...

Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
13
16
11
17
14
A) What type of pattern exists in the data? (HORIZONTAL
OR TREND)
B) Develop a three-week moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your
answers to two decimal places.
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
18
2
13
3
16
4
11
_______
5
17
_______
6
14
_______
MSE:...

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Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
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(b)
Develop a three-week moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
If required, round your answers to two decimal places.
(c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the
exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a
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If required, round your answers to two decimal places.
(d)...

Problem 15-05 (Algorithmic)
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Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
16
13
18
11
15
14
Develop a three-week moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two
decimal places.
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
16
2
13
3
18
4
11
5
15
6
14
MSE: _______
The forecast for week 7: ______
Use = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
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Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
22
11
18
10
17
21
13
A) What type of pattern exists in the data?
The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern.
The data appear to follow a trend
pattern.
The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern.
The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern.
B) Develop the three-month moving average forecasts for this
time series.
Month
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1...

Consider the following time series data.
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
24
13
18
12
18
23
15
b. Develop the three-month moving average
forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for
month 8
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number.
Month
Time Series
Value
Forecast
Forecast
Error
Squared Forecast
Error
1
24
2
13
3
18
4
12
?
?
?
5
18
?
?
?
6
23...

(b)
Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time
series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
16
2
11
3
13
4
10
5
14
6
12
Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
MSE =
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(c)
Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
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Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
16
2
11
3
13
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
24
13
20
12
19
23
15
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If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
22
13
18
12
18
23
14
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Time Series Value
Forecast
Forecast Error
Squared Forecast Error
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Week
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2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
14
16
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