Question

Inductive generalizations have this form:1. X percent of the observed members of group A have property B. (the sample)2.Thus, about X percent of A have property B. (the generalization from the sample)For instance: 1. 40% of the pickles you have pulled out of the barrel are very good.2.Therefore, about 40% of the pickles in the barrel are very good.To assess the strength or weakness of inductive generalizations (arguments which generalize from sample sets), logicians run through 3 checks:

CHECK #1: Is the appropriate population being sampled? You would be making a logical error if you have a sample of female college freshman and you generalize to a conclusion about elderly men.

CHECK #2: Is the sample truly random? To be a good/strong argument, the sample must be representative of the population it is targeting. The easiest way to ensure this is to have a truly random sample. If the sample is not representative (e.g. if you ask those over 40 what they think about Avengers movies, then generalize what people think about Avengers movies, you have made a logical error: those over 40 are only one part of “people” and not representative of all people.)

CHECK #3: Are there enough members in the sample set? Even if someone is randomly chosen from the U.S. you cannot generalize and conclude with probability who will win the next presidential election from one person’s opinion. The sample set (one person to generalize about all Americans) is too small, even if he/she was randomly chosen.

Question: Most newspaper reports of crimes in Chicago involve alleged perpetrators who belong to racial minorities. Therefore, most crimes in Chicago are committed by racial minorities.

Answer 1

Statement: Most newspaper reports of crimes in Chicago involve alleged perpetrators who belong to racial minorities. Therefore, most crimes in Chicago are committed by racial minorities.

Check # 1: The appropriate population is sampled. There seems to be no logical error involved as a sample of newspaper reports mentions the connection of racial minorities with the crime rates in Chicago and the conclusion is given on the basis of that.

Check # 2: It seems that the sample is taken from the representative population. The sample is truly random.

Check # 3: As per the statement, it is mentioned that most of the newspaper reports have been assessed. Therefore, there seems to enough sample size to conclude.

Since the statement passed all three checks, thus the conclusion seems to be strong.