Question

An offshore structure with a design life of 20 years is planned for a site where...

An offshore structure with a design life of 20 years is planned for a site where extreme wave events may occur with a return period of 100 years (i.e. the 100-year wave). The structure is designed to have a 0.99 probability of not suffering damage within its design life. Damage effects between wave events are statistically independent

(a) You found in HW 4 that the yearly probability of exceedance of the design wave height is p = 1/100 = 0.01. Here, using the information provided above and a r.v. for damage that follows a binomial distribution, find the probability of damage to the structure under a single extreme wave event (damage/exceedance).

(b) Using the damage probability (damage/year) that may be determined from your results of part (a), what is the probability of damage to the structure in the next 10 years assuming the occurrences of extreme wave events follows a Poisson process?

(c) How would your answer to part (b) differ had you assumed that extreme wave events follow the binomial distribution?

Homework Answers

Answer #1

(a) here we use binomial distribution with parameter n=20 and p=0.01

for Binomial distribution ,P(X=r)=nCrpr(1-p)n-r  

probability of damage to the structure under a single extreme wave event =P(X=1)=0.1652

( using ms-excel =BINOMDIST(1,20,0.01,0)

(b) Expected number=np=10*0.01=0.1, now we use poisson distribution with paramete =0.1

for poisson distribution P(X=x)=exp(-)^x/x!

probability of damage to the structure under a single extreme wave event =P(X=1)=0.0905 ( using ms-excel=POISSON(1,0.1,0))

(c) for extreme events ( when probability of events is very low) we should use poisson distribution...

Know the answer?
Your Answer:

Post as a guest

Your Name:

What's your source?

Earn Coins

Coins can be redeemed for fabulous gifts.

Not the answer you're looking for?
Ask your own homework help question
Similar Questions
3. An earth retaining wall with a design life of 50 years is planned for a...
3. An earth retaining wall with a design life of 50 years is planned for a site where high-intensity earthquakes may occur with a return period of 100 years. A geotechnical engineer has decided that the wall is to be designed to have a 0.99 probability that it will not suffer damage within its design life. Assuming damage between earthquakes are statistically independent, answer the following questions. (a) What is the probability the wall will be damaged under a single...
Actually a HISTORY question: what tactics does Einhard use to portray Charlemagne in "Life of Charlemagne"...
Actually a HISTORY question: what tactics does Einhard use to portray Charlemagne in "Life of Charlemagne" and what tactics does Procipius use to describe Justinian in a positive light in the "Nika Riots"? Ive posted both excerpts. "Life of Charlemagne" Charles the Great, (Charlemagne in French) reigned 768-814 as king of the Franks and the most important ruler of the Carolingian Dynasty, conquering lands in what is now Germany, France, Spain, and Italy. On Christmas Day 800 C.E., Pope Leo...
What tools could AA leaders have used to increase their awareness of internal and external issues?...
What tools could AA leaders have used to increase their awareness of internal and external issues? ???ALASKA AIRLINES: NAVIGATING CHANGE In the autumn of 2007, Alaska Airlines executives adjourned at the end of a long and stressful day in the midst of a multi-day strategic planning session. Most headed outside to relax, unwind and enjoy a bonfire on the shore of Semiahmoo Spit, outside the meeting venue in Blaine, a seaport town in northwest Washington state. Meanwhile, several members of...
Using the model proposed by Lafley and Charan, analyze how Apigee was able to drive innovation....
Using the model proposed by Lafley and Charan, analyze how Apigee was able to drive innovation. case:    W17400 APIGEE: PEOPLE MANAGEMENT PRACTICES AND THE CHALLENGE OF GROWTH Ranjeet Nambudiri, S. Ramnarayan, and Catherine Xavier wrote this case solely to provide material for class discussion. The authors do not intend to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of a managerial situation. The authors may have disguised certain names and other identifying information to protect confidentiality. This publication may not be...
ADVERTISEMENT
Need Online Homework Help?

Get Answers For Free
Most questions answered within 1 hours.

Ask a Question
ADVERTISEMENT