Question

Consider the following time series data.

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6

Value 19 14 17 10 17 13

Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

(a) mean absolute error MAE =

(b) mean squared error MSE =

(c) mean absolute percentage error (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MAPE = %

(d) What is the forecast for week 7?

Answer 1

Time period	Actual Value(A)	Moving avg. Forecast(F)	Forecast error E=|A-F|	Squared Forecast Error	|A-F|A
1	19
2	14	19	5	25	0.3571
3	17	14	3	9	0.1765
4	10	17	7	49	0.7000
5	17	10	7	49	0.4118
6	13	17	4	16	0.3077
7		13
		Total	26	148	1.95
		Average	5.20	29.60	39.06%
			MAD	MSE	MAPE
a) mean absolute error=			5.2
b) mean squared error =			29.6
c) mean absolute % error=			39.06%
d) forecast for week 7 =			13