Question

Ted Cruz received 51,666 votes in the Iowa Caucus and Donald Trump received 45,427 votes. Given...

Ted Cruz received 51,666 votes in the Iowa Caucus and Donald Trump received 45,427 votes. Given the counting error in the number of Cruz votes, can he claim a statistical victory (i.e. is his vote lead greater than the counting error?). Show your work.
Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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Answer #1

Cruz votes : 51666
Trump votes : 45427
Total percentage of votes for each
----------------------------------
Cruz : (51666/(51666+45427))*100 = 53.21 %
Trump : (45427/(51666+45427))*100 = 46.79%

Here, there is a difference in 6.42 % between the errors.
Only in a case where atleast 6.42 % of the votes which were
actually supposed to be in favour of Cruz are misclassified as
Trump's Trump may have a lead. This 6.42% should also happen without
any split.

Here, thus the majority for Cruz is of 6.42%.
ie (6.42/100)*(51666+45427) = 6233 votes.
Hope the idea is clear.


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