Question

The probability that the chick that Hank just picked up is a female, given that he identified it as a female is .82 (the posterior probability). And the distribution of female and male chicks is 56/44. What is Hank’s reliability at correctly identifying chicks?

Answer 1

Probability of the chick that Hank picked is a female is = 56/100 = 0.56

Probability that the chick that Hank just picked up is a female, given that he identified it as a female is given as 0.82.

Thus, reliability of Hank's measure is given by the probability that the Hank identifies a chick as female and the chick is actually female.

This can be calculated using the conditional probability theorem, that is, P(B and A) = P(B)P(A|B)

Hence, Hank's reliability is 0.56x0.82 = 0.4592.