Question

The number of flowers sold at The Blossom Shop on Fridays is shown in the table below.

Week	Demand	Week	Demand	Week	Demand
1	55	6	63	11	69
2	50	7	50	12	52
3	57	8	50	13	67
4	60	9	58	14	63
5	58	10	73	15	70

Round off all calculations to two decimal places. Maintaining two decimal places is required for all calculations

1. What is the forecast for week 16 using exponential smoothing with α = 0.2? Assume that the forecast for week 1 was 55.

A)        Less than or equal to 63.00

B)        Greater than 63.00 but less than or equal to 66.00

C)        Greater than 66.00 but less than or equal to 69.00

D)        Greater than 69.00 but less than or equal to 72.00

E)        Greater than 72.00

2. What is the forecast for week 16 using exponential smoothing with α = 0.6?

Assume that the forecast for week 1 was 55.

A)        Less than or equal to 63.00

B)        Greater than 63.00 but less than or equal to 66.00

C)        Greater than 66.00 but less than or equal to 69.00

D)        Greater than 69.00 but less than or equal to 72.00

E)        Greater than 72.00

3. What is the mean square error for the forecast with α = 0.2 as of week 15? Do not use week one in your calculations.

A)        Less than or equal to 63.00

            B)        Greater than 63.00 but less than or equal to 66.00

            C)        Greater than 66.00 but less than or equal to 69.00

D)        Greater than 69.00 but less than or equal to 72.00

E)        Greater than 72.00

4. What is the mean square error for the forecast with α = 0.6 as of week 15? Do not use week one in your calculations.

A)       Less than or equal to 63.00

B)       Greater than 63.00 but less than or equal to 66.00

C)       Greater than 66.00 but less than or equal to 69.00

D)       Greater than 69.00 but less than or equal to 72.00

            E)       Greater than 72.00

5. What is the period 15 tracking signal for the forecast with α = 0.2?

A)        Less than or equal to 2.00

B)        Greater than 2.00 but less than or equal to 4.00

C)        Greater than 4.00 but less than or equal to 6.00

D)        Greater than 6.00 but less than or equal to 8.00

E)        Greater than 8.00

6. What is the period 15 tracking signal for the forecast with α = 0.6?

A)        Less than or equal to 2.00

B)        Greater than 2.00 but less than or equal to 4.00

C)        Greater than 4.00 but less than or equal to 6.00

D)        Greater than 6.00 but less than or equal to 8.00

E)        Greater than 8.00

7. Assume that the control limits for the tracking signal are ±4. What can be concluded about the quality of the forecasts using α = 0.20 or α = 0.60?

A)        Both forecasts are unbiased. The forecasts using alpha = 0.2 and alpha = 0.6 both produce no tracking signal that falls outside the tracking signal limits.

B)        Both forecasts are biased. The forecasts using alpha = 0.2 and alpha = 0.6 both produce at least one tracking signal that falls outside the tracking signal limits.

C)        The forecast using alpha = 0.2 is unbiased. The forecast using alpha = 0.2 produces no tracking signals that are outside the tracking signal limits. The forecast using 0.6 falls is biased since it produces at least one tracking signal that is outside the tracking signal limits.

D)        The forecast using alpha = 0.2 is biased. The forecast using alpha = 0.2 produces at least one tracking signal that falls outside the tracking signal limits. The forecast using alpha = 0.6 is unbiased and produces no

Answer 1