Ch 04 HW 3 Forecasting problem Method: Weighted Moving Average with n = 3 and weights 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6 The data for this problem is shown in the table below. Note: changes from the original problem data are highlighted in yellow. Time (t) Actual A(t) 1 950 2 930 3 915 4 920 5 901 6 898 7 884 8 913 9 924 10 937 11 don't have yet What is the value for MAPE using this method?
Actual | Weighted | |
1 | 950 | |
2 | 930 | |
3 | 915 | |
4 | 920 | 923 |
5 | 901 | 919.5 |
6 | 898 | 908.1 |
7 | 884 | 901.1 |
8 | 913 | 889.9 |
9 | 924 | 902.8 |
10 | 937 | 916.7 |
11 | 930.7 |
period | demand | forcast | forecast error=demand value-forecast value | absolute forecast error | squared forcast error | Abs %error |
t | Dt | Ft | et=Dt-Ft | | et | | (et)² | | et/Dt | |
1 | 950 | |||||
2 | 930 | |||||
3 | 915 | |||||
4 | 920 | 923.000 | -3.00 | 3.00 | 9.00 | 0.33% |
5 | 901 | 919.500 | -18.50 | 18.50 | 342.25 | 2.05% |
6 | 898 | 908.100 | -10.10 | 10.10 | 102.01 | 1.12% |
7 | 884 | 901.100 | -17.10 | 17.10 | 292.41 | 1.93% |
8 | 913 | 889.900 | 23.10 | 23.10 | 533.61 | 2.53% |
9 | 924 | 902.800 | 21.20 | 21.20 | 449.44 | 2.29% |
10 | 937 | 916.700 | 20.30 | 20.30 | 412.09 | 2.17% |
11 | 930.700 |
MAPE= Σ | et/Dt |/n =
1.78%
Please note that data was not in good format and hence please let me know in case of any data change
THANKS
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