Question

Consider the following time series data.

Month	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Value	24	13	18	12	18	23	15

b. Develop the three-month moving average forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8

(to 2 decimals if necessary). Enter negative values as negative number.

Month	Time Series Value	Forecast	Forecast Error	Squared Forecast Error
1	24
2	13
3	18
4	12	?	?	?
5	18	?	?	?
6	23	?	?	?
7	15	?	?	?
			Totals	?

MSE = [ ? ]

The forecast for month 8 = [      ?      ]

c. Use a=.02 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8 (to 2 decimals). Enter negative values as negative number.

Month	Time Series Value	Forecast	Forecast Error	Squared Forecast Error
1	24
2	13	?	?	?
3	18	?	?	?
4	12	?	?	?
5	18	?	?	?
6	23	?	?	?
7	15	?	?	?
			Totals	?

MSE = [ ? ]

The forecast for month 8 = [       ?      ]

e. Use a smoothing constant of a=.04 to compute the MSE. (to 2 decimals).

[     ?      ]

Answer 1

b)

				squared
month	value	forecast	error	error
1	24
2	13
3	18
4	12	18.33	-6.33	40.11
5	18	14.33	3.67	13.44
6	23	16.00	7.00	49.00
7	15	17.67	-2.67	7.11
			total	109.67

MSE= 27.42

forecast =18.67

c)

				squared
month	value	forecast	error	error
1	24
2	13	24.00	-11.00	121.00
3	18	21.80	-3.80	14.44
4	12	21.04	-9.04	81.72
5	18	19.23	-1.23	1.52
6	23	18.99	4.01	16.12
7	15	19.79	-4.79	22.93
			total	257.72

MSE =42.95

forecast =18.83

e)

MSE =38.56