Question

Consider the following time series data.

Month |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |

Value |
24 | 13 | 18 | 12 | 18 | 23 | 15 |

**b.** Develop the three-month moving average
forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for
month 8

(to 2 decimals if necessary). Enter negative values as negative number.

Month |
Time Series
Value |
Forecast |
Forecast
Error |
Squared Forecast
Error |

1 | 24 | |||

2 | 13 | |||

3 | 18 | |||

4 | 12 | ? | ? | ? |

5 | 18 | ? | ? | ? |

6 | 23 | ? | ? | ? |

7 | 15 | ? | ? | ? |

Totals |
? |

MSE = [ ? ]

The forecast for month 8 = [ ? ]

**c.** Use a=.02 to compute the exponential
smoothing forecasts for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast
for month 8 (to 2 decimals). Enter negative values as negative
number.

Month |
Time Series
Value |
Forecast |
Forecast
Error |
Squared Forecast
Error |

1 | 24 | |||

2 | 13 | ? | ? | ? |

3 | 18 | ? | ? | ? |

4 | 12 | ? | ? | ? |

5 | 18 | ? | ? | ? |

6 | 23 | ? | ? | ? |

7 | 15 | ? | ? | ? |

Totals |
? |

MSE = [ ? ]

The forecast for month 8 = [ ? ]

**e.** Use a smoothing constant of a=.04 to compute
the MSE. (to 2 decimals).

[ ? ]

Answer #1

b)

squared | ||||

month | value | forecast | error | error |

1 | 24 | |||

2 | 13 | |||

3 | 18 | |||

4 | 12 | 18.33 | -6.33 | 40.11 |

5 | 18 | 14.33 | 3.67 | 13.44 |

6 | 23 | 16.00 | 7.00 | 49.00 |

7 | 15 | 17.67 | -2.67 | 7.11 |

total | 109.67 |

MSE= 27.42

forecast =18.67

c)

squared | ||||

month | value | forecast | error | error |

1 | 24 | |||

2 | 13 | 24.00 | -11.00 | 121.00 |

3 | 18 | 21.80 | -3.80 | 14.44 |

4 | 12 | 21.04 | -9.04 | 81.72 |

5 | 18 | 19.23 | -1.23 | 1.52 |

6 | 23 | 18.99 | 4.01 | 16.12 |

7 | 15 | 19.79 | -4.79 | 22.93 |

total | 257.72 |

MSE =42.95

forecast =18.83

e)

MSE =38.56

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1
2
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5
6
7
Value
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13
18
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23
14
Consider the time series data
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