Question

# Consider the following time series data. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 24...

Consider the following time series data.

 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 24 13 18 12 18 23 15

b. Develop the three-month moving average forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8

(to 2 decimals if necessary). Enter negative values as negative number.

 Month Time Series Value Forecast Forecast Error Squared Forecast Error 1 24 2 13 3 18 4 12 ? ? ? 5 18 ? ? ? 6 23 ? ? ? 7 15 ? ? ? Totals ?

MSE = [ ? ]

The forecast for month 8 = [      ?      ]

c. Use a=.02 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8 (to 2 decimals). Enter negative values as negative number.

 Month Time Series Value Forecast Forecast Error Squared Forecast Error 1 24 2 13 ? ? ? 3 18 ? ? ? 4 12 ? ? ? 5 18 ? ? ? 6 23 ? ? ? 7 15 ? ? ? Totals ?

MSE = [ ? ]

The forecast for month 8 = [       ?      ]

e. Use a smoothing constant of a=.04 to compute the MSE. (to 2 decimals).

[     ?      ]

b)

 squared month value forecast error error 1 24 2 13 3 18 4 12 18.33 -6.33 40.11 5 18 14.33 3.67 13.44 6 23 16.00 7.00 49.00 7 15 17.67 -2.67 7.11 total 109.67

MSE= 27.42

forecast =18.67

c)

 squared month value forecast error error 1 24 2 13 24.00 -11.00 121.00 3 18 21.80 -3.80 14.44 4 12 21.04 -9.04 81.72 5 18 19.23 -1.23 1.52 6 23 18.99 4.01 16.12 7 15 19.79 -4.79 22.93 total 257.72

MSE =42.95

forecast =18.83

e)

MSE =38.56

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