Question
Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear...
Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear trend model as Tˆt = 164.90 + 1.09t. In addition, quarterly seasonal indices are calculated as Sˆ1 = 0.88, Sˆ2 = 0.94, Sˆ3 = 1.16, and Sˆ4 = 1.12. a-1. Interpret the first quarterly index. In other words, what is the value of the series in the first quarter as compared to the average? 12% below 12% above 88% above 88% below a-2. Interpret the fourth quarterly index. In other words, what is the value of the series in the fourth quarter as compared to the average? 88% below 12% above 12% below 88% above b. Make a forecast for all four quarters of next year. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) yˆt Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
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Exhibit 17-1
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2
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